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iamfine


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發表於 08-1-23 15:28 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 仔仔錫錫你 於 08-1-23 13:46 發表

你同我阿哥case一樣, 沙士買入180萬, 07年頭290萬放出(不過舊單位已升到340萬), 再入個大dd單位 320萬, 依家有客出420萬買.

佢話如果真係賣會有200萬cash, 佢無擔心樓市會再上升. 只係怕租住的環境無咁好比唔到太太用同小朋友.

佢計過數, 話租住低, 供樓&mgt fee 每月要 around14k, 20年比利息&mgt fee 要140萬. 如果租樓 同樣要 around 12k, 200萬銀行年利息收入around 8萬, 平均6700每月, 扣除租金實則每月比around 5300, 比供樓 save 8.7k, 20年可 save 208萬. 只要陳樓20年後唔好賣多過400萬就得



Two serious flaws in your brother's reasoning:

(1) It is almost certain that rent will go up and up in the long run;
(2) Of the $12k monthly mortgage (assuming that management fee/rates etc amount to $2k per month), about 6k goes to repayment of principal.

In your brother's case, his monthly revenue spending on living is at present $8k per month. If he sells his home and rents it for $12k, his monthly spending will jump 50% to $12k. He has to be awfully good at investment to make good the difference.

And, more importantly, he and his family are living happily in their own home. Why bother? what happens if rent goes further up and up? Does he want to stay away from the trouble of moving every two years and working for a permanent home 10 or 15 years from now when he is not as physically fit and earning less? I don't have a crystal ball and can never be sure whether the price is going to rise or fall (although chance is that price will go up in the long run), but I can guarantee that your brother will, a few more years from now, find paying off his mortgage a piece of cake. You don't believe me? Fine, ask those who retire happy.

I am probably too conservative but I still believe that -

(1) Your home is not an investment; it is a primary need, a piece of work;
(2) Unless you have your primary need satisfied and work done, you have no right to talk about investment.

And, one big problem with those who choose to rent and not to buy - very often they fall into the trap of living beyond means. It is perfectly OK to rent and not to buy, provided that one rents what he can buy. But, look around yourself, am I correct that your friend Peter, who can only afford to buy a 500ft2 flat, is renting a 700ft2 one, and your neighbour Paul, who is making $40k per month, is handing over half of his hard earned money to his landlady for the prestigious clubhouse, and Mary, who can never afford a flat in mid-level, is renting a flat in Robinson Place for the false sense of superiority? It is not hard to tell where will Peter, Paul and Mary end up? My bet is that their more down to earth friend Simon who bought a flat in Mei Foo when he was young will laugh at last.

Please don't get me wrong - I am not a speculator. Nor am I am estae agent. I care more about a constant flow of rental income than capital gain (as a matter of fact, I have more to gain if there are more Peter, Paul and Mary). Why I bother to say all these? I HATE TO SEE PEOPLE DOING STUPID THINGS.

[ 本文章最後由 iamfine 於 08-1-23 15:32 編輯 ]
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發表於 08-1-25 16:24 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 qmaqma 於 08-1-25 14:59 發表
me 2
911 後入市用 , 自住, 大單位,有細路
依家賬面賺左2百萬
自問自己一定沒能力再儲 2百萬
須則 2 公婆都有野做
賣左租樓一定無依家咁舒服
租又比供樓多比 3k/月
但叫做有 CASH 在手, 如怕投資, 我可以等市跌再買一層
當然, 一定唔會係 911 或 沙士價咁低啦
如果唔賣, 一定唔可以依家諗退休
我唔識計數, 想大家比下意見




With so little information it is really hard to analyse. Let me try my best.

Assuming that -

(1) You and your husband are 40 something of age;
(2) Your son/daughter will remain fully dependent on you for 12 more years;
(3) You purchased your place for around $2.7m. You took out a $1.9m mortgage when you purchased it;
(4) Your place is now worth $4.7m and you still owe the bank about $1.4m;
(5) At present, your monthly mortgage repayment amounts to about $11,000;
(6) To rent the same or a similar apartment, you need to spend $1,4000 a month.

Congratulations first. Not only is your property worth $2m more, you have saved about half a million in the past years. GOOD WORK. WELL DONE. (Think about it, you probably would have either spent the half million or handed it over to your landlord had you not bought your property. Now, that half a million is yours).

Second, take out your bank statement and have a look. You will see that of the $11,000 monthly mortgage payment, about $7,000 goes to repayment of principal. That means your monthly expenditure on living is around $6,000 ($4,000 + $2,000 for rates/management fee).

WOW. You are only spending $6,000 for your place!!! Congratulations again.

If you sell it, you can get back $3.3m. Sounds like a lot of money, right? Stay tunned and read on.

The big question is, what can the $3.3m brings you? The difference between staying in your place and renting it is $14,000 - $6,000 = $8,000. With a higher proportion of the mortgage payment going to repayment of principal and rent going up, the difference can only be bigger and bigger. It will be more like $11,000 in two years, $15,000 in four years, $20,000 in six years ... (The progression is not linear. Just go to any financial website and use an online calculator to check it out). I do not know how good you are in investing, but you had better be as good as Warren Buffet to be able to make good the difference. Some people may say 等個市跌就可再買. HA HA HA. Why are they not already rich?

Now, look further. You mentioned "如果唔賣, 一定唔可以依家諗退休". I can promise you that if you sell your property, you will not dare think about 退休 when you are 60 years old. Where comes a constant flow of income? What are you going to live on? Where comes the money for rents? You and your husband may well be very frugal. But, no matters who frugal you and your husband, you will have used up a large part of that $3.3m by the time you are 60.

And, don't forget "賣左租樓一定無依家咁舒服". Why bother? Your place is as 舒服 as it has always been, whether it is worth $2.7m or $4.7m or $6.7m. A home is a home is a home sweet home.

Moreover, don't forget that you have $3,000 spare cash. Go to HSBC/HSB/BOC and start a 2800 tracker fund saving plan. By the time you retire, you will find a big sum of money in your stock account and you own a property that is free of mortgage. Congratulations again. Your C9 friends may call you a boring chicken-hearted if you know that you are accumulating 2800. Do not listen to them. What brings you excitement cannot bring you wealth. (How do I know it? Don't ask. I learnt it the hard way.)

Short term profits are for sissies. Don't be afraid of holding on to your investment. You have lived through the difficult period (your mortgage has become a much lesser burden, right?). Now, it is time to enjoy life with your hubby and son/daugther.

Happy post-retirement life to you and your husband. Three more cheers.

[ 本文章最後由 iamfine 於 08-1-25 16:38 編輯 ]
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發表於 08-1-25 16:41 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 ac321 於 08-1-25 16:39 發表
It seems that you had a 'hard' past..........I am so sorry.



It was hard. But I have got back many times more from what I paid for the lesson.
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iamfine


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發表於 08-1-25 17:30 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 C.C.Ho. 於 08-1-25 17:21 發表
... 毎個月供緊16k幾，有差不多有5k幾係息，就覺得好吃力。 家陣租咗村屋都係10k都唔洗。慳咗好多。...


I sincerely hope that the reference to 5k being interest is a typo.

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iamfine


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發表於 08-1-25 17:57 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 C.C.Ho. 於 08-1-25 17:46 發表
冇錯呀! 剛剛拿咗statement嚟睇 interest 的而且確係 $5085喎!!


I like guessing game. Let me guess - You purchased the property about 7 or 8 years ago for about $3.7 million and you sold it last year for a small profit. Am I right?
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iamfine


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發表於 08-1-25 18:39 |顯示全部帖子
原文章由 C.C.Ho. 於 08-1-25 18:32 發表
:lolmost nearest!! I bought it in year 2002 and the amount is $3.2M. I earn more than $1M. As per my property over market price to sold it.
聽日就要搬啦!! 有小小唔捨得。 唔知聽日突然 ...


Good to see so many smiling faces in your post. I can feel your joy.

Sai Kung is a good place to live. Lovely.
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